Ether (ETH) pundits have been shouting that the $5,000 toll has been 'programmed,' since 2022, and some go fifty-fifty further past calling for $20,000 over the long term.

A portion of these bullish calls are based on ETH two.0 staking and the reduced inflation resulting from EIP-1559.

The $twenty,000 estimate is equivalent to a $2.36 trillion market capitalization, and even if information technology is feasible, information technology all the same seems excessively optimistic for now.

Ether entered an ascending channel on Sep. 20, which points to $5,000 becoming a support level by late Nov.

Ether price in USD at Kraken. Source: TradingView

Backing the contempo strength is the net value locked growth, or adapted TVL, on Ethereum network smart contracts. TVL measures the assets deposited on decentralized applications and is ordinarily led by lending protocols and DEX exchanges.

Ethereum network adjusted total value locked (TVL) in USD. Source: DeBank.com

Ether'due south TVL breached the previous $71 billion best high on Oct. 16, accumulating a l% proceeds in iii months until Oct. 31.

Adverse regulatory winds coming from the United States lawmakers could exist driving investors abroad from cryptocurrencies. Many U.South. states, including Kentucky, Texas, Alabama, Vermont, New Jersey and nigh recently, New York, accept been not bad down on crypto lending.

Furthermore, in October, New York-based decentralized prediction market Polymarket came under investigation from the U.s.a. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). According to a Bloomberg report on Oct. 23, the bureau is evaluating whether the decentralized finance (DeFi) application allows its customers to merchandise binary options and swaps without the necessary regulator approval.

On the other paw, some investors await a positive movement from traditional markets to further boost the rally. Data shows that November has been the all-time performing month for the Southward&P 500 since 1985.

Pro traders believe ETH price will move higher

To confirm investors' confidence in the $five,000 prophecy coming truthful, ane should monitor the monthly contract's premium, known as "ground." Different the perpetual contract, these fixed-calendar futures do non have a funding charge per unit, so their toll will differ vastly from regular spot exchanges.

Past measuring the expense gap betwixt futures and the regular spot market, a trader can gauge the level of bullishness in the market. Whenever there's excessive buyers' optimism, the three-calendar month futures contract will trade at a fifteen% or higher annualized premium (basis).

Ether iii-month futures basis charge per unit. Source: Laevitas.ch

Notice how not even the 9.5% correction on ETH cost on Oct. 27 from $4,300 to $3,900 was enough to pause those traders' spirits. Currently, the ground rate stands at 17%, which signals moderate bullishness.

Options markets show moderate bullishness

Ether made an all-time high at $4,460 on October. 29 and to determine how optimistic traders are, we have to look at the 25% delta skew. This indicator provides a reliable "fright and greed" analysis by comparing similar phone call (buy) and put (sell) options next.

The metric volition plow positive when the neutral-to-bearish put options premium is higher than similar-take chances phone call options. This state of affairs is usually considered a "fright" scenario. On the other hand, a negative skew translates to a higher toll of upside protection and points toward bullishness.

Deribit Ether 60-solar day options 25% delta skew. Source: laevitas.ch

The above chart shows the indicator at negative 9, flirting with the "greed" momentum. That optimistic stance started on Oct. 18, which wasn't exactly a positive day for Ether because it tested the $3,700 support multiple times.

Both derivatives indicators sit on the edge of a neutral-to-bullish zone, which should exist interpreted every bit highly positive every bit it leaves room for buyers' leverage using derivatives instruments.

According to futures and options metrics, perma-bulls calling for $5,000 are likely to exist correct in the short term.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading motility involves risk. You lot should behave your own research when making a decision.